Holiday cheer

‘Tis the season for festive get- togethers, so how about some Holiday cheer this week?

 🍾Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 199,000 in November, celebrating a narrow victory over those pesky consensus expectations. Cue the sounds of corks popping. Civilian employment decided to join the party, jumping by 747,000 jobs, which led to a dip in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. We're talking about labor force increases and the highest job-holding population since COVID crashed a lot of Christmas Parties.

🥂 And cheers to the ISM Non- Manufacturing indexes component industries, the remain resilient and are partying it up with a rise to 52.7 on the index. Still in expansion territory (over 50.) Fifteen out of eighteen industries are indicating growth.
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🍻 But, of course, there could be some trouble brewing. Private payrolls added only 150,000 jobs in November. And a revision to previous months knocked off 61,000 jobs, leaving us with a modest net gain of 89,000. And guess what? About 38,000 fewer workers decided to strike, so our real private payroll gains were a much more modest 51,000.

🍪Jobless claims took an upward turn while continuing claims dropped by 64,000. The M2 money supply measure’s finally down, the yield curve’s gone all topsy-turvy and short-term interest rates are looking mighty attractive. That is a recipe for what? Not Chrsitmas cookies. Risk aversion, my friends! Businesses will be getting cautious, and that could mean trouble down the line.

🧑🏼‍🎄Hey, no party goes on forever. But that doesn't mean you shouldn’t enjoy yourself. Just be sure to stay off the naughty list. ​