Recession? What recession?

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Recession? What recession?

10/23/2023

Recession? What recession? Last week’s data solidified that 2023 won’t be the year the economy contracts. 📆

🏡Existing Home Sales in September declined by 2.0, falling for the fourth consecutive month. Sales are now at the slowest pace since the 2008/9 Financial Crisis. A surge in benchmark interest rates obviously drives challenges in the housing market. 30-year fixed
mortgage rates are now nearing 8%, leading to a 40% increase in monthly payments for the median existing home with a 20% down payment.

🏗️Housing Starts in September increased by a solid 7.0%. Existing homeowners hesitate to list their properties due to low fixed mortgage rates, and many prospective buyers are forced to turn to new builds.

🏭Industrial Production in September had a surprising 0.3% increase, with gains across major categories. Industrial activity has accelerated at a 5.2% annualized pace in the past three months.

🛍️ Retail Sales in September were strong, with a 0.7% increase that beat expectations. Factoring in revisions to previous months, retail sales grew even faster at 1.0%.

📈Despite concerns about a recession, Real GDP looks to have expanded at about a 4.7% annual rate in the third quarter, potentially the fastest pace of growth since 2014 (excluding the COVID-related reopening in 2020-21). Rising rates should bring on a recession at some point. But not just yet.

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Patrick Huey

Patrick Huey is a small business owner and the author of two books on history and finance as well as the highly-rated recently-released fictional work Hell: A Novel. As owner of Victory Independent Planning, LLC, Patrick works with families and non-profit organizations. He is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, Chartered Advisor in Philanthropy® and an Accredited Tax Preparer. He earned a Bachelor’s degree in History from the University of Pittsburgh, and a Master of Business Administration from Arizona State University.

Patrick previously served as a Naval Flight Officer from 1996-2005, earning the Strike Fighter Air Medal during combat operations and two Navy Achievement Medals.In his spare time you can find him on the golf course, the tennis court, volunteering with Our Daily Bread Food Pantry and occasionally acting at the Arts Center Theatre.

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