Recession? What recession? Last week’s data solidified that 2023 won’t be the year the economy contracts. 📆
🏡Existing Home Sales in September declined by 2.0, falling for the fourth consecutive month. Sales are now at the slowest pace since the 2008/9 Financial Crisis. A surge in benchmark interest rates obviously drives challenges in the housing market. 30-year fixed
mortgage rates are now nearing 8%, leading to a 40% increase in monthly payments for the median existing home with a 20% down payment.
🏗️Housing Starts in September increased by a solid 7.0%. Existing homeowners hesitate to list their properties due to low fixed mortgage rates, and many prospective buyers are forced to turn to new builds.
🏭Industrial Production in September had a surprising 0.3% increase, with gains across major categories. Industrial activity has accelerated at a 5.2% annualized pace in the past three months.
🛍️ Retail Sales in September were strong, with a 0.7% increase that beat expectations. Factoring in revisions to previous months, retail sales grew even faster at 1.0%.
📈Despite concerns about a recession, Real GDP looks to have expanded at about a 4.7% annual rate in the third quarter, potentially the fastest pace of growth since 2014 (excluding the COVID-related reopening in 2020-21). Rising rates should bring on a recession at some point. But not just yet.
Patrick Huey is a small business owner and the author of two books on history and finance as well as the highly-rated recently-released fictional work Hell: A Novel. As owner of Victory Independent Planning, LLC, Patrick works with families and non-profit organizations. He is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, Chartered Advisor in Philanthropy® and an Accredited Tax Preparer. He earned a Bachelor’s degree in History from the University of Pittsburgh, and a Master of Business Administration from Arizona State University.